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The New England Patriots wrap up the 2025 regular season against the rival Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Mike Vrabel's squad clinched the AFC East last week, but their work is not complete. The Patriots can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the invaluable first-round bye with a win on Sunday paired with a Denver Broncos loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. 

The Patriots are coming off a dominant 42-10 win over the New York Jets last week. New England scored touchdowns on six straight drives to begin the game, while Drake Maye became the first player to ever complete 90% of his passes and throw for 250 yards and five touchdowns. As for the Dolphins, they upset Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17, 20-17. Rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers earned his first NFL victory, and flashed some of his potential as well. 

Let's break down this divisional matchup. But first, here's how you can watch the game

Where to watch Dolphins vs. Patriots live

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 4 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Location: Gillette Stadium - Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • TV: Fox | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
  • Follow: CBS Sports App
  • Odds: Patriots -10.5; O/U 45.5 (via DraftKings)

Dolphins vs. Patriots: Need to know

  • Stefon Diggs situation: The Patriots were in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs faces charges of felony strangulation or suffocation and misdemeanor assault and battery following an incident in his home earlier this month, according to CBS Boston's review of paperwork filed in Dedham District Court. While the NFL is looking into the matter, Diggs is expected to play Sunday. 
  • Drake Maye's MVP case: The Patriots' second-year signal-caller registered just four incompletions compared to three total touchdowns last week against the Jets, and is now a relatively heavy favorite to win NFL MVP. He is listed at -295 at DraftKings, while Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is now +225 following his three-interception performance in Week 17. Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.7%), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (112.9).
  • Containing De'Von Achane: A key to victory for New England is containing the explosive Dolphins running back. De'Von Achane ranks fifth in the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,838) and leads the league with 40 rushes for 10 or more yards. He's crossed 100 scrimmage yards in 10 games this season, including a 225-yard explosion against the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. 
  • Quinn Ewers gets another start: The Dolphins ended the Tua Tagovailoa era in Week 16, and gave the keys to the offense to the rookie Ewers. In two starts, he's thrown for 432 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The former Texas star would really turn some heads if he were able to upset the Patriots on Sunday. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction, pick

The Patriots are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games when favored by double digits, and are an impressive 11-5 against the spread this season. While the Patriots destroyed the Jets by 32 points last week, I don't see this game being as lopsided. Miami has won five of its last seven games after starting the season 2-7, and is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games against the Patriots. New England wins this game, but the Dolphins cover the big number. Pick: Dolphins +10.5, Under 45.5